Assignment Task

Disease Overview

The Dunyamwera virus has been identified as an infectious disease reaching pandemic status, as declared by all major global health authorities. Since its initial outbreak three months ago, nearly 3 million cases have been confirmed worldwide, with an anticipation of many more cases emerging in the coming months. In Zachistan, a sizable African nation with a population of 50 million, there have been 380 confirmed cases within the past month. To address this challenge, the government has mobilized a task force consisting of key officials, research institutions, development partners, and leaders from pharmaceutical companies. A crucial aspect of the government`s strategy involves testing, tracking, and tracing, with a focus on rapidly assessing the country`s diagnostic capabilities. CHAI has been entrusted with assisting the government in conducting this assessment, which is expected to guide significant policy decisions.

Current Diagnostics Scenario

The current diagnostic process for detecting the Dunyamwera virus entails collecting buccal swabs from suspected patients. Trained phlebotomists visit suspected individuals and utilize buccal brushes to collect samples from the inner cheek tissue. Notably, this procedure does not involve the collection of blood specimens. Subsequently, the buccal swabs are transported to diagnostic laboratories in secure, temperature-controlled containers. Currently, there are 200 laboratories situated across the country, each equipped with one RT-PCR machine.

Within the laboratory, technicians utilize RT-PCR machines to confirm the presence of the Dunyamwera virus in the samples. The DNA extracted from the swabs is achieved through a manual extraction method, a process that consumes considerable time. Screening test kits, comprising a combination of chemicals and control samples, are employed for conducting diagnostic tests in the RT-PCR machines. Each sample necessitates the utilization of one test kit. These kits are procured from various local and international manufacturers. However, due to global demand, orders for test kits must be placed well in advance, considering substantial procurement lead times.

According to national guidelines, each sample that tests positive for the virus in the screening test should undergo a confirmatory test. Consequently, a portion of the RT-PCR machine capacity is allocated to conducting confirmatory tests in each batch, thereby diminishing the available capacity for screening tests.

Requirements

Develop a flexible diagnostics capacity assessment Excel model that enables decision-makers to adjust inputs (intervention coverage and days of switch for automated extraction machines and combination testing) to evaluate various scenarios of daily and cumulative testing capacity over the next six months (180 days) in Zachistan. Utilize this model to compute the cumulative testing capacity for Zachistan, incorporating intervention details as outlined in Appendix B and Appendix C.

Estimate the quantity of combination test kits and non-combination test kits required over the next 6 months (180 days), assuming full utilization of all machines.

Present this analysis in a 3-4 slide PowerPoint deck intended for CHAI to deliver to Ministry of Health officials from Zachistan.